NGpoliticsDraft
Who will win the 2027 Nigerian presidential election?
65.6% Bola Tinubu (APC)
ODU consensus from 12 venue markets on 2 venues, updated 56 minutes ago (2026-11-05 21:58 WAT). Method lwlop-v1 · thin liquidity
- Bola Tinubu (APC)65.6%
- Peter Obi (LP)25.6%
- Atiku Abubakar (PDP)2.7%
- Seyi Makinde (PDP)2.1%
- Kashim Shettima (APC)2.1%
- Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP)0.9%
- Omoyele Sowore (AAC)0.6%
- Rotimi Amaechi (ADC)0.2%
- Sandy Onor (PDP)0.1%
- Any other candidate0.0%
Venues
- kalshiatiku-abubakar3.8%21:58
- kalshibola-tinubu68.5%21:58
- kalshikashim-shettima2.1%21:58
- kalshipeter-obi25.5%21:58
- polymarketatiku-abubakar2.1%21:58
- polymarketseyi-makinde2.2%21:58
- polymarketrotimi-amaechi0.2%21:58
- polymarketrabiu-kwankwaso0.9%21:58
- polymarketomoyele-sowore0.7%21:58
- polymarketbola-tinubu67.5%21:58
- polymarketpeter-obi26.5%21:58
- polymarketsandy-onor0.1%21:58
Venue quotes are what each venue showed at the time, not ODU's view. Method prices-v1
Last 24 hours, Bola Tinubu (APC)
Resolution
Resolves to the candidate INEC declares the winner of the presidential election scheduled for 16 January 2027, as announced by the INEC Chairman acting as Chief Returning Officer. If no candidate meets the Section 134 threshold on the first ballot, resolves to the winner of the run-off election. If voting is postponed, the question stays open and the close time is moved by a versioned edit. Litigation after the declaration does not change the result. Candidates not listed resolve to "Any other candidate".
- Closes
- 2027-01-16 00:00 WAT
- Resolves by
- 2027-01-31 23:59 WAT
- Version
- 1